AGP Executive Report

Energy Storage Boom: CATL expects energy storage to hit 50% of global battery sales by 2030, driven by renewables needing backup power. US-Iran Tensions Hit Oil Flows: Iranian crude and condensate exports fell to a six-year low in May as a US naval blockade and Strait of Hormuz disruption squeeze shipments. Nuclear Oversight Stalls: The UN nuclear watchdog says it can’t inspect war-affected Iranian sites and can’t confirm enriched uranium stockpile details. Diplomacy Stalls in Lebanon: Hezbollah rejected a US-brokered Lebanon ceasefire, clouding any broader US-Iran de-escalation path. Coal Push vs. Energy Shock: Trump announced nearly $700M to support US coal plants and exports, even as markets weigh ongoing Iran-linked fuel-price pressure. India Forex Measures: RBI unveiled steps to attract foreign capital and support forex reserves amid the Iran-war supply shock. EU Business Worry: A new EU industry survey flags worsening confidence tied to energy insecurity from the Iran conflict. Iran-Russia Nuclear Deal: Iran and Russia signed a $25B nuclear cooperation MoU, including Bushehr expansion and new projects.

Nuclear Oversight: The UN nuclear watchdog (IAEA) says it still can’t verify Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile because inspectors lack access to war-damaged sites, warning this creates a “proliferation concern” and urging Tehran to cooperate. Energy & Shipping: With the Strait of Hormuz repeatedly disrupted, Iran says it will charge ships for services during passage (navigation, rescue, security, and cleanup), while global markets keep reacting to renewed Gulf flare-ups and the risk of supply shocks. Inflation Pressure: The U.S. Fed links “moderate-to-strong” inflation to energy costs tied to the Iran war, with spillovers hitting shipping, packaging, groceries, and fertilizer. Local Industry Impact: Global manufacturing growth is downgraded to about 2.6% for 2026 as the oil shock and geopolitical uncertainty raise input costs and cool investment. Policy Crossfire: The U.S. House passed a war-powers move to curb Trump’s Iran war authority, adding uncertainty to ceasefire talks and any path to reopening Hormuz. Defense Posture: Iran’s foreign minister reiterates Tehran wants peace but is ready to “continue the war” if needed, while Iranian officials push for longer-range missile development.

Gulf Escalation Hits Industry: Iranian strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain and US counterstrikes near the Strait of Hormuz have damaged Kuwait International Airport, suspended flights, and pushed Brent above $98, keeping energy and logistics costs under pressure. Iran Economy Under Strain: In Iran, prices are rising “by the hour” as the blockade disrupts oil exports and supply chains, squeezing factories and households. Talks Stuck, Ceasefire Fragile: Iran says there’s “no tangible progress” in US talks while Trump signals a deal “over the weekend,” as Israel-Lebanon ceasefire terms hinge on Hezbollah withdrawal. US War Powers Shake-Up: The US House passed a resolution to curb Trump’s Iran war powers after four Republicans joined Democrats, adding uncertainty to military posture that directly affects shipping and energy flows. Sanctions and Tech Supply Risks: US actions target Iran-linked crypto and charge a California tech CEO over alleged shipments of US networking equipment to Iran’s nuclear and military programs. Regional Trade & Infrastructure: Armenia and Iran highlighted cooperation in energy, logistics, and trade-economic sectors as Gulf disruptions intensify.

Nuclear & Sanctions: A California-based tech CEO, Jamshid Ghomi, was arrested for allegedly supplying U.S.-origin networking, security and encryption gear to Iran’s nuclear and military programs, with prosecutors citing a $15m sanctions-evasion flow into U.S. accounts. Gulf Shipping & Energy: Iran–U.S. tensions flared again after Iran struck Kuwait’s main airport, killing one and injuring dozens, while the U.S. hit targets near Qeshm; officials now trade claims of “self-defense,” and shipping strain around Hormuz remains a live risk. Industrial Impact: Iran faces a looming summer energy imbalance as demand rises and refinery output can’t keep up, forcing more fuel imports despite long-running subsidies and limited policy options. Agriculture: Moroccan locust swarms are damaging eastern Iran’s crops and threatening livestock feed, with authorities spraying pesticides and urging farmers to avoid harvesting. Health Infrastructure: Iran inaugurated Tehran’s new Cancer Institute Hospital, billed as the Middle East’s largest cancer treatment facility, expanding diagnosis, radiotherapy and chemotherapy capacity. Research & Industry: Iran climbed to 6th globally for highly cited scientific papers, signaling growing research influence even as the war disrupts broader output.

Gulf Flashpoints: The US says it carried out “self-defence” strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island after Iran launched missiles and drones toward Kuwait and Bahrain; CENTCOM reports the attacks were intercepted or failed, while Iran’s IRGC claims it hit the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain—claims Washington denies. Ceasefire Friction: Iran is reported to have stopped communicating with mediators over extending a ceasefire, but Trump insists talks are ongoing “continuously,” as Israel’s Lebanon campaign keeps derailing diplomacy. Energy Shock for Industry: Oil prices pushed higher on renewed Hormuz risk, with the OECD warning that if the conflict drags into 2027, energy shortages and higher fertiliser and industrial input costs could push economies toward recession. Sanctions Hit Finance: The US Treasury sanctioned Iran’s largest crypto exchange Nobitex and other platforms, targeting alleged sanctions-evasion and terror-finance links. Consumer Cost Relief: Japan approved a $19bn emergency budget to subsidize petrol, electricity and gas, while Pakistan’s Power Division announced June electricity relief of 20 paisa per unit despite the Iran-war energy squeeze. Shipping Enforcement: The US disabled a Botswana-flagged tanker (Lexie) heading for Iran’s Kharg Island with a Hellfire strike, citing repeated ignored warnings. Research Signal: Iran climbed to 6th globally in high-impact scientific research share, according to ISC data. Trade & Logistics Diversion: Oman’s trade pact with India is framed as a way to stabilize energy and supply chains as Strait of Hormuz disruptions ripple across agriculture and industry.

US-Iran Nuclear Talks: Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Congress Iran has agreed to negotiate parts of its nuclear program it previously refused, while warning sanctions relief depends on strict nuclear curbs and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomacy vs. Messaging: Trump denied reports Iran stopped communicating with mediators, insisting talks are “continuously” ongoing, as Iranian media said Tehran paused indirect exchanges amid Lebanon escalation. Strait of Hormuz Pressure: Rubio and Iran-linked reporting keep tying any deal to safe, toll-free shipping and mine removal, with markets watching for whether Hormuz stays open. Maritime Flashpoint: The IRGC claimed it hit a US- and Israel-linked MSC vessel near Iraq with a cruise missile, but Iraqi investigators questioned whether it was a deliberate attack—raising uncertainty for shipping risk. Regional Leverage: Netanyahu is portrayed as a key obstacle to any US-Iran opening, while the US reportedly pressures Oman to abandon neutrality. Industry Impact: UNICEF warned Iran-war shipping disruptions and higher insurance costs are delaying lifesaving child aid, forcing more air freight. Economy & Energy: Euro zone inflation rose to 3.2% in May as energy costs stay elevated; oil prices swung on shifting ceasefire and talks signals. Iran’s Economic Strain: Iran’s inflation hit WWII-era levels, with the rial under pressure and hardship deepening.

Strait of Hormuz Pressure: Iran suspended indirect talks with the US and signaled plans to fully block Hormuz as Israel-Hezbollah fighting continues, while the US disputed the suspension and said talks are still moving “at a rapid pace,” keeping energy markets on edge. US-Iran Escalation: The US bombed Iranian radar/drone sites after a drone shootdown, then Iran said it hit US forces in Kuwait—fresh strikes that risk derailing any ceasefire extension. Commodities Whiplash: Gold edged higher on mixed US-Iran signals, while oil pulled back after a volatile rally; copper climbed to a two-week high as tariff uncertainty and tighter supply supported prices. Industrial Ripple Effects: Automakers are building inventories in Asia to hedge supply disruptions tied to the war, and airlines like JetBlue warned fuel costs are rising again as Hormuz disruptions persist. Food & Fertilizer Strain: Fertilizer shortages and higher prices are pushing farmers to seek alternatives, while demand for food banks has surged since the war began. Regional Trade/Transit: Japan’s PM urged safe passage for Japanese ships through Hormuz and sought help using Iranian assets, as shipping leaders in Athens warned Hormuz-only deals won’t quickly restore normal flows. Eurozone Pricing Power: A Reuters review found only about a third of euro zone’s biggest firms are raising prices in response to the Iran shock, suggesting weaker demand than in 2022.

Strait of Hormuz Shock: Iran says it has suspended indirect US talks via mediators over Israel’s Lebanon offensive, and warns it may fully block Hormuz—sending Brent and WTI up sharply and reviving fears of supply disruptions. Diplomacy vs. Escalation: Reuters and Tasnim report the message halt is tied to Lebanon as a ceasefire precondition, while Trump says talks are still moving “at a rapid pace” and that the US will keep its blockade. US-Iran Strike Cycle: The US describes “self-defense” strikes on Iranian radar/drone sites after a drone shootdown; Iran counters with attacks tied to US forces in Kuwait, keeping the ceasefire fragile. Maritime Fallout: The UN shipping agency says thousands of seafarers remain stranded in the Gulf because safe crew transfers aren’t possible. Energy Industry Impact: US crude exports hit a record in May as refiners chase alternatives; airlines like JetBlue flag higher jet fuel costs as the Hormuz route stays constrained. Regional Pressure Points: Iran signals potential escalation beyond Hormuz, including Bab al-Mandeb, raising new risks for Red Sea shipping.

US-Iran Ceasefire Talks Under Pressure: Trump sent back a revised draft to Iran with tougher conditions, focusing on nuclear commitments and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran’s chief negotiator said Tehran won’t trust Washington or sign without secured rights. New Strikes, Same Sticking Points: The US said it carried out “self-defence” strikes on Iranian radar and drone command sites after Iran downed a US MQ-1 drone; Iran retaliated by targeting a US-linked air base, and Kuwait reported intercepting missile and drone attacks. Hormuz and Shipping Risk: The talks hinge on easing navigation restrictions and reopening the chokepoint for commercial shipping, but both sides keep trading blows, keeping logistics and energy planning on edge. Energy and Markets: Oil jumped more than 2% as investors weighed renewed conflict risk; Asian equities firmed, but uncertainty around Hormuz kept prices volatile. Aviation Fuel Relief in India: India kept domestic jet fuel prices unchanged after airlines sought relief amid Iran-war cost pressure. Agri Trade Push Toward Iran: Kazakhstan reported a 97% jump in agricultural exports to Iran, including grain plus halal beef and lamb, and discussed investment in processing.

South Pars Recovery: Iran says it has restored gas production at three offshore platforms in the giant South Pars field after US-Israeli strikes disrupted onshore processing, with output routed to other plants while repairs continue. Hormuz Control & Shipping Rules: IRGC says it has full authority over Strait of Hormuz navigation, requiring vessels to use designated routes and obtain IRGC Navy permission, warning of targeting for violations. Deal Stalemate, Tougher US Terms: Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warns Tehran won’t approve any US deal unless Iranian rights are secured, as reports say Trump sent back a tougher framework focused on nuclear commitments and Hormuz reopening. Blockade Escalation at Sea: The US says it disabled a Gambia-flagged cargo ship trying to breach its blockade in the Gulf of Oman after ignoring 20+ warnings, while Iran continues to signal readiness for further military action. War’s Industrial Cost: Rising energy and fertilizer pressures are pushing farmers toward alternatives, with fertilizer supply strains linked to Hormuz disruption and gas constraints. Energy Market Spillover: EU officials are weighing a temporary freeze on Russia’s oil price cap as the Iran conflict keeps energy prices volatile.

Hormuz Shipping Pressure: The US disabled another Gambia-flagged bulk carrier, Lian Star, in the Gulf of Oman for trying to breach the blockade; it joins a growing list of stopped vessels as Washington keeps maritime enforcement tight while a 60-day ceasefire extension is still pending. Strait Control Push: Iran is moving to formalize its role in Hormuz management, warning ships must follow Iran/IRGC-designated routes and get IRGC Navy permission, while parliamentarians signal “special treatment” for Russia and China—raising new uncertainty for tanker and trade flows. Deal Stalemate: Trump says he’s making a “final determination” on a draft framework, but Iran insists no final agreement exists and rejects “must” language, saying uranium enrichment isn’t on the table yet and actions matter more than words. Energy Market Spillover: Oil prices slid on ceasefire hopes, but Hormuz traffic remains far below pre-war levels, keeping pressure on fuel, LNG, and shipping-linked costs. Defense & Tech Signals: Iran’s Defense Ministry says it will set up a drone support center for civilian and military services, as US officials warn they can restart strikes if talks fail. Regional Shockwaves: A missile strike on Kuwait’s Ali Al Salem base injured five Americans and damaged US drones, while reports also point to possible Chinese-made air-defense involvement in a separate US aircraft incident.

US-Iran Ceasefire Standoff: Trump’s Situation Room meeting ended without a decision on a proposed 60-day ceasefire extension, even as he reiterated “red lines” tied to nuclear limits and Strait of Hormuz reopening. Iran’s Pushback: Tehran says no final MoU has been agreed and that message exchanges continue, with officials stressing the focus remains ending the war and rejecting “must” language. Hormuz Shipping & Energy Risk: The draft framework centers on unrestricted commercial shipping, mine removal, and lifting the US naval blockade—yet Iran also signals it wants control over how the strait is managed, keeping uncertainty high for oil and gas flows. Nuclear Fuel Logistics: Kazakhstan says it could store Iran’s near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile under IAEA supervision if a broader nuclear deal is reached. Sanctions & Supply Chains: Washington imposed counterterrorism sanctions on an Iran-linked network accused of impersonating US firms and routing restricted military technology via UAE intermediaries. Regional Pressure on Industry: Reports of fresh missile debris hitting Kuwait’s Ali Al Salem Air Base underline how quickly the Gulf’s security situation can disrupt logistics and energy operations.

Iran-US Ceasefire Decision: US President Donald Trump says he will make a “final determination” in the White House Situation Room on a 60-day ceasefire extension, tying any deal to opening the Strait of Hormuz “immediately” with “no tolls” for unrestricted shipping, lifting the US naval blockade, and requiring Iran to remove or detonate remaining sea mines. Nuclear Red Line: Trump also demands Iran’s buried highly enriched uranium be “unearthed” and destroyed in coordination with Iran and the IAEA, while insisting Iran will “never” have a nuclear weapon. Tehran Pushback: Iran’s top negotiator Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf warns Tehran will judge by actions, not words, and Iran’s foreign ministry says no final understanding is reached yet. Regional Shipping Talks: Iran’s Araghchi holds a “very productive” call with Oman on Hormuz stability and “future administration,” signaling continued sovereign control concerns. Energy Shock Watch: With Hormuz uncertainty driving oil and fuel volatility, US inflation pressure is rising, and ExxonMobil warns inventories could tighten sharply, raising the risk of a major price spike. Trade Route Update: Pakistan and Iran-linked road routes are being operationalized to keep Central Asian cargo moving via Iranian border crossings amid Hormuz disruption.

US-Iran Ceasefire Talks: A tentative 60-day MoU to extend the truce and restart nuclear talks is still stuck on Trump sign-off, while Iran denies the text is finalized; reported terms include unrestricted Strait of Hormuz shipping, mine removal within 30 days, and a phased lift of the US naval blockade. Strait of Hormuz Fallout: Fresh drone and airbase strikes around Bandar Abbas and Kuwait show how quickly the ceasefire can fray, keeping shipping, insurance, and energy logistics jittery. Energy Markets: Oil prices slid on deal hopes, then whipsawed with renewed strikes; base metals like copper rose on easing inflation fears, while gold bounced as investors weigh rates and conflict risk. Sanctions Pressure on Oil Trade: The US escalated “maximum pressure” with new sanctions targeting Iran’s military oil shipping networks, including vessels and entities tied to crude exports and related settlements. Iran Domestic Cost Crunch: Iranians report sharp price jumps and tighter budgets amid the war-driven inflation spiral, hitting everyday consumption. Regional Energy Rebalancing: Asia’s energy transition is getting messy as some countries revive coal to cover LNG supply risks from the Hormuz disruption. Insurance & Risk Business: Mapfre is expanding its large-risks unit in Europe and the US, adding cyber and parametric lines as complex project exposure grows.

Ceasefire Talks, Pending Approval: The US and Iran reportedly agreed on a 60-day memorandum to extend the ceasefire and start nuclear negotiations, but the framework still hinges on President Donald Trump’s sign-off and Iran’s top leadership. Strait of Hormuz Shipping: Under the reported terms, commercial passage would be “unrestricted,” with Iran removing naval mines within 30 days and the US easing its naval blockade in line with restored shipping. Sanctions and Pressure: US Treasury chief Scott Bessent escalated pressure, calling Iran’s Strait Authority a “joke” after sanctions, and warning the US would halt Iranian airlines’ access to landing spots, refueling and ticket sales. Economic Agenda in Tehran: Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei directed parliament to prioritize economic stability, inflation control, liquidity management, and rebuilding war damages. Market Impact: Stocks and precious metals swung on deal headlines, while oil spiked again after renewed strikes, keeping global energy and inflation risks front and center. Industry Angle: With Hormuz traffic uncertain, Iran’s maritime and aviation sectors face immediate operational and cost shocks, while global supply chains remain highly exposed.

Hormuz Deal Clash: Iran’s state media said a draft MoU would restore commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz within a month, but the White House called it “complete fabrication,” while Trump insisted the strait will stay “open to everybody” and rejected any Iran-Oman control plan. New Strikes, Fragile Ceasefire: The U.S. carried out fresh strikes near Bandar Abbas, saying it intercepted four Iranian one-way drones and hit a ground control station; Iran’s IRGC retaliated by targeting a U.S. airbase, as Kuwait reported missile/drone threats. Sanctions on Shipping: Washington added Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority to its sanctions list, accusing it of extorting tolls and forcing vessel coordination. Energy Shock for Industry: Oil jumped after the renewed exchanges, keeping global shipping risk high and adding pressure to costs across supply chains. Iran’s Economic “Red Lines”: Iranian officials framed the fight as economic and vowed stronger response to renewed aggression, while also stressing uranium enrichment and Hormuz control as non-negotiables. Internet Restrictions Ease—Partly: Iranians began regaining internet access after a monthslong shutdown, but with heavy app restrictions still in place. Household Cost Pressure: In the UK, energy bills are set to rise about 13% as conflict-driven fuel and wholesale gas costs feed through to consumers and businesses.